History Repeats Itself? (Mid-Month Update & Forecast September 2021)

The last time we were in lockdown, the market soared. Do you think we are heading that way again? In this week's mid-month (apologies it's off a few days) update, we look at how September is shaping up to be so far and what we can expect heading into October and the winter months.


As always, thank you for coming and checking out our content here. I'm Aly, a local Calgary real estate agent. I work with predominately first-time home buyers and sellers with their real estate needs. My goal is to help as many families as I can to achieve homeownership and build generational wealth in the process. To learn my story, check it out below.

So let's get into what's happening this month so far.


The Forecast


In September, I'm forecasting our number of new listings coming onto the market in September to grow by about 2% while our number of sales in the month to decline 7% from the previous month.


The number of new listings on the market is understandable with the reopening and lack of lockdowns in our market for the first part of the month. Sellers are more inclined to allow buyers into their homes now with the vaccine levels as high as they are in our province.


It is critical to note as well this forecast is not taking into account the recent lockdowns. This is due to the lack of changes from our real estate board (CREB) to any of our procedures at the moment for showing homes and open houses. As of the day of this publication, we currently don't have any restrictions on the number of people allowed for a viewing or an open house.


The Outcome


So how will this affect our market heading into October? Well, it really depends on what you are selling and your motivation to sell it. Most sellers aren't as inclined to sell their home when the weather shifts to become a bit colder, which will happen in October. If this decline does happen, we might see the absorption rate increase once again as buyers continue to absorb inventory available on the market.


The other factor to consider is the political landscape we will be in when we get to October. From all the reports I've seen, it looks to be another minority Liberal government. If this is the case, we will need to see how important their housing changes will be to them going forward. They can drastically change the landscape of the market with their anti-flipping legislation that would ban flipping a home within 12 months of purchasing the home.


You can check out the housing platforms for the parties in my blog series below.

But if we head into the winter months status quo, which let's be honest will be more likely, we can expect the absorption rate to remain relatively constant or slightly decline as we get closer and closer to the holidays.


Interest rates will not be changing anytime soon and the variable rates are still very, very competitive. More and more external buyers from other provinces are seeing how Calgary can be a viable and affordable choice for them. Take this and add more remote working and more jobs available, we can continue to see Calgary become a thriving space for homeownership.


The Advice


So what should you do if you are a buyer or seller in our market heading into the winter?


For the potential sellers, consider a sale in the winter. Historically this is the best time to sell your home because of the lack of competition. While everyone else wants to have their home ready for spring, you can take advantage and have your home sold before the warm weather hits. You can then buy your next home in more of a driver's seat with added selection in the spring. If this plan is something you might consider, let's talk. Shoot me an email below.

For current buyers, the market has shifted in your favour selection-wise, but know that prices don't come immediately with this change. A flood of inventory is what we would need to adjust prices to come down. Right now, that is not the case as our market inventory levels have recovered in some markets (single-family) to allow for prices to maintain and increase slightly.


But we are still one of the most affordable markets in Canada, and something you should take advantage of right now. Take advantage of the added selection if you can. If you are in the budget of $400-600k, know you are competing for this price point. Ensure your best foot forward is taken when you are submitting offers.


Finally, remember you are in a great space and are able to buy a home. Some of the other markets in Canada are so competitive that buyers have no chance of buying a home and generating that generational wealth we all strive to provide for our families.


Thank you for the time as always, I hope this update helps you along your journey of understanding the housing market in Calgary. If you are currently looking to buy or sell your home, I would love to have the chance to speak to you and help you along your way.

Take care,

Aly


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